Polymer market demand is far from returning to pre-crisis levels

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The global polymer industry is once again in trouble and the polymer market demand in mature economies is still far from its pre-crisis level. Deterioration of the European debt crisis, fluctuations in capital markets and slowdown in global economic growth have caused market confidence to suffer. On the one hand, the slowdown in demand growth between China and India, on the other hand, continues to increase exports from the United States and the Middle East, and the global polymer market has once again become more competitive.

China is the world's largest polymer consumer market. In 2011, the demand for China's polymer market reached 49 million tons, accounting for 27% of the total global demand. Affected by the government's active economic stimulus measures, China's polymer consumer market recovered rapidly after 2008. China's polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand achieved double-digit growth for two consecutive years in 2009 and 2010, but China's polymer demand is estimated to grow by 5.6% in 2011, compared to 11% growth in 2010. Drop 5.4 percentage points.

In 2012, the Chinese government lowered its GDP growth target, and investment and demand will decline. In addition, due to the European debt crisis and the worrisome prospects of the US economy, China's exports of plastics and semi-finished products will also decline. Affected by these two factors, China's polymer demand growth will slow down in 2012, which will affect the global polymer market.

The fast-growing Indian polymer market was also hit in 2011. Since the second quarter of 2011, the slowdown in industrial production and the government’s tightening credit policy to curb inflation have led to a slowdown in demand for general-purpose synthetic resins. Due to the weak demand in the domestic downstream market and the declining demand for exports to the United States, Europe, and China, Indian polymer producers have had to cut their operating rates. This situation will continue in 2012.

Shale gas leathers ordered US crackers to switch to cheaper ethane as raw materials, thereby increasing the export competitiveness of US PE and PVC producers. The price advantage of ethane has made the performance of the US ethylene industry chain attractive, which has stimulated the petrochemical producers to further increase the investment in lightweighting of raw materials and increase the export competitiveness of petrochemical products.

In 2011, the export volume of PE in the United States was estimated to reach 4.3 million tons, and PVC export volume was estimated to be 2.9 million tons. The export volume of PVC is estimated to have increased by 6.4% from the previous year. Polymers exported to Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Venezuela, Russia, China, the Middle East and North Africa have experienced strong growth, while exports to Canada, Europe and Southeast Asia have decreased.

The United States is still a major exporter of PP. In 2011, it exported 1.8 million tons. However, due to the lack of propylene raw materials, the export prospects of PP are worrying. This is because naphtha crackers have switched to lighter ethane feedstocks, and the closure of some refineries has led to a reduction in refinery propylene supply. In 2011, the net export volume of PS in the United States was about 350,000 tons, which was mainly affected by the fluctuation of the benzene market.

The pressure from Middle East competitors on Asian PE and PP producers is increasing. In January this year, the electricity supply to the Saudi Jubail Industrial Park was disrupted, which stimulated the temporary rebound of PE and PP prices in the Far East market. However, in the coming months, due to the restoration of normal electricity supply in the industrial park and the impact of new production capacity in the Middle East, polymer production profits will be squeezed.

Saudi Polymer Co., Ltd.'s polymer project in Jubail will be officially put into production in 2012. The project includes two sets of 550,000-ton/year high-density polyethylene (HDPE)/linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) devices. A 400,000-ton/year PP unit and two 100,000-ton/year PS units. A 300,000-ton/year low-density polyethylene (LDPE) plant from Saudi Kayan Petrochemical will be put into operation in mid-2012. Qatar Petrochemical will also open a 300,000-ton/year LDPE unit in Mesaside.

In addition, two sets of 650,000-tonne/year PE equipment from ExxonMobil Chemical on Jurong Island in Singapore will start production in 2012. India’s Hindustan Petroleum and Mittal Energy (HMEL) will open a set of 440,000 tonne/year homopolymer PP plant in Punjiab in April this year. A set of 440,000-ton/year PP plant in Mangalore, India (MRPL) in Mangalore will also be commissioned this year.

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